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The Marketplace - 30th March 2015
30/03/2015
The pound starts the week on the back foot, falling for a third week in a row versus the dollar on the back of record low inflation data last week. The economic calendar is relatively quiet for UK this week and the market will remain focused on key releases from the US.
UK
The pound continues to struggle as a report last week showed that that UK CPI fell to 0 percent. Market expectations are for a weaker pound as political pressure surrounding the upcoming election is likely to weigh on the pound.
This week's key releases include Consumer Confidence where expectations are for a further point gain, marking the third month of optimism. Investors will be paying close attention to Tuesday's final GDP figures which could influence further movement in the GBPUSD pairing.
Later in the week, manufacturing and construction PMI's are forecast to show an improvement in both sectors. Manufacturing PMI reached 54.1 the previous month, beating expectations forecasts are for an increase to 54.3. Construction data also beat expectations the previous month, reaching above 60 points, the indicator is expected to reach 60.49.
US
Data from the U.S. was mixed last week with a decline in unemployment, inflation in line with expectations and disappointing final GDP. Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivered a balanced speech on Friday commenting that 'they should not wait until they have returned to the 2 percent inflation target before they move.' an indication perhaps that a hike in interest rates may be driven by other data, namely employment figures.
Key releases from the US kicks off with consumer confidence expected to reach 96.6 in March, slightly up from February's disappointing 96.4, followed by Manufacturing PMI and Trade balance data. The main market mover of the week will round out the week on Good Friday in the form of Non-Farm Payrolls, expected to show a gain of 251k jobs, the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 5.5 percent.
EUR
In the Eurozone German Preliminary CPI Is likely to serve as the most probable source of price fluctuation in the region. Although this is a preliminary statistic, it is filtered into the market over the course of the day, prolonging its impact.
The most significant data to come out of Europe over the course of the week will be the CPI flash estimate which is released on Tuesday morning. This is expected not to have changed since its last release so a marginal change may increase volatility. This will be supported be various data figures coming out of the individual member, in the form of German unemployment, French consumer spending and CPI and PMI figures.
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