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The Marketplace - August 26th August 2014

Sterling was hit hard last week as disappointing UK inflation and overall upbeat US data pushed the pound to multi-month lows versus the dollar in a seventh straight week of decline. Diverging monetary policy will continue to spur volatility in the market and the focus this week will shift from the UK and US to the European Area following Mario Draghi’s speech in Jackson Hole, where he suggested that the ECB were prepared to ease policy further in the event that inflation continues to fall.

GBP

Bank of England meeting minutes published last week surprised the market with a 7-2 split vote, the first in three years, with Member Weal and McCafferty voting in favour of an immediate rise.  Sterling held good levels versus an increasingly weaker euro and analyst expect further movement in to the upside coming into the week as speculation continues around Eurozone monetary policy.

The UK economic calendar is light this week with only second-tier releases following the bank holiday beginning with mortgage approvals this morning where the upward trend is set to continue this year.  The latter part of the week will bring consumer spending and confidence data, both indicators are forecast to show improvement this month.

USD

The Dollar dominated the headlines this past week with multi-month gains against its major currency counterparts, in particular the euro. Strong US housing data last week spurred the dollar’s rally in the market and was further intensified by balanced and ‘not too dovish’ FOMC meeting minutes  which drove speculation that interest rates could rise in 2015. Close attention was paid to the week’s biggest event, Federal Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole, for clues around the timing of an interest rate hike. Yellen remained focused on the US labour market and reiterated that the employment figures will remain a key gauge for raising rates.

The dollar hit a 1-year high versus the euro on Monday as a gauge measuring the economy’s growth, The Chicago Fed National Activity Index, showed that the economy expanded more than forecast in July.  US Data highlights this week include housing data, durable goods and GDP and unemployment. The second estimate GDP is expected to show a minor tick down to 3.9% and US unemployment numbers are forecast to rise this week to 299,000.

EUR

ECB president Mario Draghi conveyed concerns around a decline in euro area inflation expectations in a key speech on Friday in Jackson Hole. In his speech he said investor bets on euro-inflation ‘exhibited significant declines at all horizons and policy makers will use all the available instruments needed to ensure price stability over the medium term.’  Euro area inflation slowed to 0.3% this month, a fraction of the ECB’s goal of just under 2%.

The euro extended further losses on Monday after a report showed that German business confidence dropped for a fourth month. Data for the remainder of the week is not expected to paint a brighter picture with unemployment figures expected to stay close to a record high and economic confidence forecast to fall.

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