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The Marketplace - February 20th 2015
20/02/2015
Greece’s crisis negotiations continue to roll on as the country’s new government and European leaders remain divided. The uncertainty in the region will keep the pressure on the EUR/USD paring and developments in the region will continue to dominate the headlines. Following a quiet day for UK data yesterday the market will be focusing on UK retail sales due for release later this morning.
EUR
The Eurozone’s latest business surveys for February have been released this morning, France posted the strongest PMI figures in over three years at 52.2 and Germany posted figures of 54.3 - the country’s best in over six months. Data over the 50 mark signals growth in the economy, where figures under 50 denote contraction in the sector. The overall Eurozone PMI was also positive coming at 53.5, which is also over a six-month high.
In other Eurozone news, the discussions around Greece’s financial future are continuing today with rumours circulating the market as to potential agreements that have put forward and/or rejected. New wire’s reported that on Thursday Germany rejected a proposal from the Greek government on the basis that it was ‘not a substantial solution.’ The proposal was for a six-month extension to its current loan agreement instead of renewing its existing bailout detail which expires at the end of February. The negotiations will continue today as the Eurozone leaders regroup in Brussels.
US
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell to 5.2 in February compared with last month’s posting of 6.3, a third consecutive monthly decline. New orders fell to 5.4 from 8.5, remaining at levels consistent with just a modest expansion. Shipments rebounded to 8.1 from the surprise contraction of -6.9 in January.
The employment index rose to 3.9 compared with -2.0 the month before, returning to positive territory. Price pressures remained weak, with prices paid falling to 4.7 and prices received unchanged at -0.2. The ISM-adjusted version of the index, which averages five of the component indices, instead of measuring general business conditions from the separate survey question that informs the headline index, rose to 51.7 from 47.8.
The softness in several of the leading survey categories suggest that regional manufacturing activity is likely to soften in the first quarter of the year.
Key Data
Retail Sales: Retail Sales slipped to 0.4 percent in December but this beat the estimate of -0.6 percent. The markets are braced for a decline of 0.1 percent in the January report.
Public Sector Net Borrowing: The UK has posted strong deficits in the past two readings. In December, the deficit of GBP 12.5 billion was well ahead of the estimate of -9.2 billion. The markets are expecting a surplus in January, with a forecast of -9.5 billion pounds.
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